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Playbook · San Francisco, Campbell, Austin, Chicago

Heat-pump permits: what the record can and can't tell you

Heat-pump permits, Q3 2026 vs Q3 2025, in four places. The count is useful, but only for what it measures: records that name heat pumps or mini-splits, which is not every HVAC job.

32 to 39San Francisco (applications filed)
45 to 47Campbell
20 to 11Austin (commercial only)
11 to 13Chicago

Heat-pump permits, Q3 2025 vs Q3 2026

What this is: permits whose record mentions heat pumps or mini-splits. What it isn't: every HVAC job. Many records don't name the equipment.

San Franciscoapplications filed
32
39
+22%
Campbell
45
47
+4%
Austincommercial only
20
11
-45%, we don't know why yet
Chicago
11
13
too few to compare
Q3 2025Q3 2026
Each city's bars are scaled to that city alone. Compare a city only with itself.

The whole path at a glance

Flowchart: Check what the count includes; Do the records name the equipment? (if not: The count is a floor, not the total); Are there 20 or more permits in the earlier quarter? (if not: Counts only, no percentage); Read each city only against its own pastCheck what the countincludesDo the records name theequipment?No: Thecount is afloor, notthe totalYesAre there 20 or morepermits in the earlierquarter?No: Countsonly, nopercentageYesRead each city onlyagainst its own past
Every step is explained below, with the official source for each fact.

Step by step

  1. Know what the count is and isn't

    • The count is permits whose record mentions heat pumps or mini-splits.
    • It is not every HVAC job. Many records say "HVAC" or "mechanical" and don't name the equipment, so the true number of heat-pump jobs is higher than any count here.
    Sources

    Picker's Desk Trends methodology

  2. Read each city against its own past

    • San Francisco (applications filed): 32 to 39, +22%. Campbell: 45 to 47, +4%.
    • Austin, commercial permits only: 20 to 11, -45%. We don't know why yet, so we don't guess.
    • Chicago: 11 to 13. Too few to compare, so counts only.
    Watch out: Keep the San Francisco label: those are applications filed, not permits issued.
    Sources

    Picker's Desk Trends methodology · City of Austin open data: Issued Construction Permits

  3. Use it as a floor, not a market size

    • Because many records don't name the equipment, a rise in the count can mean more heat-pump jobs or more records that name them.
    • Use the count to see direction within a city, and check a few records yourself before relying on it.
    Sources

    Picker's Desk Trends methodology

Honest effort and what goes wrong

About fifteen minutes: read the methodology, then open a handful of records from each quarter to see how the jobs are worded.

Next steps

See this week's commercial jobs by trade

See this week's commercial jobs by trade: pickersdesk.com/permits.html

See Permit Watch

Educational only: not legal, tax or financial advice. Source: city permit records, Picker's Desk Trends, data as of October 17, 2026. Chicago: this report uses data modified for use from its original source, www.cityofchicago.org; the City of Chicago makes no claims as to the content, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the data. Austin: City of Austin Development Services Department. Last checked against the sources October 22, 2026. Spot something out of date? Email roger@pickersdesk.com.